Garuda Rising, Black Swan Waiting: Economic and Political Futures of Indonesia
Garuda Rising, Black Swan Waiting: Economic and Political Futures of Indonesia
Mr Donald K. Emmerson
6 June 2011
SMU Admin Function Room
Singapore
Having weathered the American Financial Crisis of 2008 relatively unscathed, Indonesia has been doing well economically. Alongside an expected annual GDP growth of at least six per cent in 2011 and 2012, exports have risen while unemployment has declined. Foreign investments have flowed into the country sharply. Politically, the country remains generally stable, despite occasional bouts of religious bigotry and attacks motivated by radical elements.
Drawing on his research on and experience in Indonesia, Professor Donald K. Emmerson assessed the arc of the Garuda (the national emblem of Indonesia) as it tried to fly still higher and farther. He also discussed the possibility of a black swan – an unexpected but consequential future event – and how it could impact the country's trajectory of success.
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Acronyms that denote emerging economies, like BRICS, should be viewed with caution as they represent perception rather than accomplishment.
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Indonesia's reputation for red tape, corruption and poor infrastructure must be addressed if it is to improve its business potential.
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Incremental black swans like corruption eat into the legitimacy of the country's system, increasing the chance of a sudden black swan event
Donald K. Emmerson during his speech at Singapore Management University
